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Developments surrounding the drugs, also popularly used for weight loss, have been disrupting anything from owners of dialysis centers to bariatric surgery providers and the food industry. But one investment advisor, Brian Krawez, president of Scharf Investments, says there are opportunities. "Many investors are concerned about the impacts of the GLP-1 drugs on a host of companies ranging from restaurants to consumer staples. Those mechanisms are the ones that help patients taking the drugs to lose weight and regulate their diabetes. They got roughly 35% market share, but a lot of people don't know the company," he said, adding that specialty pharmaceuticals — including the GLP-1 drugs —account for roughly 35% of the company's earnings.
Persons: Brian Krawez, Scharf, Mounjaro, Krawez, CNBC's, McKesson, It's, , Christina Cheddar Berk, Julie Coleman Organizations: Scharf Investments, CNBC, Novo Nordisk, Walmart, Unilever, Unilever isn't Locations: GLP, U.S
Planet Fitness shares could soar as new weight loss drugs become popular and users flock to the gym, according to Evercore ISI. Shares of Planet Fitness have dropped about 30% in 2023, plunging 16% in a single day last month when the company announced the surprise ousting of CEO Chris Rondeau . Although GLP-1 drugs aid weight loss by suppressing appetite, it's still essential for patients to adopt healthy habits for long-term success. This is a positive development for Planet Fitness, resulting in a rush of new gym memberships, Cheng said. He estimated that one million new members would amount to roughly 15% upside in earnings per share for Planet Fitness by 2025.
Persons: Warren Cheng, Evercore, Chris Rondeau, Cheng, Citi's Peter Verdult, , Christina Cheddar, Berk, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fitness, ISI, GLP, Planet Fitness, Planet
Medical device stocks of all kinds were pummeled over the past week as investors tried to calculate the ripple effects of new weight loss drugs. While the use of the GLP-1 drugs to treat obesity is still very limited at this point, it is expected to soar to a $100 billion market or more, by some estimates. Judging by the momentum in the stocks, investors have been betting that as people lose weight, there will be a decline in knee replacement surgery. A case for more knee surgery? Based on Truist's polling of 50 hospital administrators, the analyst expects the third quarter will show a slowing pace of knee replacement surgeries compared to the first half of 2023.
Persons: We've, Bill Sutherland, Piper Sandler, Matt O'Brien, Stryker, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, O'Brien, Richard Newitter, Newitter, Benchmark's Sutherland, Kaiser, Sutherland, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: American College of, Nordisk's Ozempic, Stryker, Surgery Partners, Permanente, Tenet Healthcare, Partners Locations: U.S, GLP
How GLP-1 drugs work Sorting through the facts reveals some likely winners and losers. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares year to date performance It is still early days for GLP-1 medications. Many have seen the rise of GLP-1 drugs as a threat to the medical device industry. Also, not all patients are able to tolerate GLP-1 drugs, which can cause side effects such as nausea. Among other medtech stocks, Plovanic sees GLP-1 drugs as an "incremental positive" for Dexcom, which makes continuous glucose monitors (CGMs), but an "incremental negative" for insulin pump makers like Insulet.
Persons: Insulet, Medtronic, Dexcom, BAX, NASH, Eli Lilly, Peter Verdult, Lilly, Eli Lilly aren't, Piper Sandler, Wegovy, Yasmeen Rahimi, Robbie Marcus, Marcus, hasn't, Baxter, David Low doesn't, William Plovanic, Craig Wong, Pan, Plovanic, Matt O'Brien, O'Brien, Rippling, Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Baxter International, Baxter, GLP, Citi, Novo, Bank of America, Viking Therapeutics, Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Amgen, Companies, Fisher, Reuters, Inspire, Systems, JPMorgan, RBC Capital, Walmart, underperformance Locations: GLP, U.S, DaVita, ResMed
The eye-popping predictions for weight loss drug sales hinge on insurance companies agreeing to provide coverage of the pricey treatments, and momentum seems to be building on that front. The drugs include Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, which is sold as Ozempic for diabetes management and as Wegovy for weight loss. Unlike earlier generations of weight loss medicines, their side effects have been largely mild and included diarrhea, constipation and nausea. Higher hospital labor costs as well as GLP-1 medications are contributing to the biggest jump in health insurance costs since 2012, Lutz said. But those numbers will grow, especially as ongoing research continues to make the case for benefits beyond blood sugar control and weight loss.
Persons: Allen Lutz, Lutz, Lutz's, Savanta, Accolade, Eli Lilly, Mercer, Willis Towers Watson, Peter Verdult, Verdult, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Accolade, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, Food, Drug Administration, Citi, Nordisk, Centers for Disease Control Locations: U.S
A recent survey conducted by Piper Sandler shows most of the 101 veterinarians it polled expect the prices they charge and the volume of patients they see to mostly hold up in the months ahead. While Piper Sandler "modestly" trimmed earnings estimates for 2024 for animal health-care companies Zoetis, Idexx Laboratories and Elanco Animal Health , Westenberg said Zoetis' products performed well in the survey. Solensia rang up $30 million in sales last year, but the opportunity for Librela is even bigger, according to the analyst. ZTS YTD mountain Even with the recent pullback in Zoetis stock, shares are up more than 18% year to date. In the Piper Sandler survey, few vets said they would pick the company's Credelio Quattro as their primary parasiticide when it is released.
Persons: Piper Sandler, David Westenberg, Westenberg, Librela, Solensia, Zoetis, FactSet, Quattro Organizations: Idexx Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Elanco Locations: parasiticides, U.S
Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Aclaris Therapeutics , a clinical stage biotech working on immunology and inflammation drugs, at an outperform, saying the market is underpricing its odds for success heading into the release of clinical trial data. Admittedly, the upcoming trial results may not be successful, which makes the bet a risky one, he said. If Aclaris is successful with zunsemetinib, it will be the only MK2 inhibitor on the market for rheumatoid arthritis, which Evercore ISI sees as an advantage. A similar drug from Bristol Myers Squibb wasn't successful in a different form of arthritis. Evercore ISI expects investors are only pricing in a 20% chance of positive data from the clinical trial, whereas the firm expects the odds are closer to 50%.
Persons: Gavin Clark, Clark, Gartner, zunsemetinib, Aclaris, Bristol Myers Squibb wasn't, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Evercore ISI, Aclaris Therapeutics, Gartner, Clark, Bristol Myers Squibb
DigitalBridge — Shares of the digital infrastructure company jumped 5.8% after JPMorgan upgraded the company to overweight from neutral. After the market closed Wednesday, Jefferies posted earnings of 22 cents per share on revenue of $1.18 billion. Accenture — Shares of the IT and consulting firm fell nearly 5% Thursday after Accenture reported mixed results for its fiscal fourth quarter. The used-car retailer's fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue slipped from a year ago on weakening demand for used cars. Concentrix — Shares gained 10% a day after Concentrix said it would hike its quarterly dividend 10% to about 30 cents a share.
Persons: Trimble —, DigitalBridge, Jefferies, Duolingo, Wolfe, Lululemon, CarMax, Concentrix, FactSet, , Jesse Pound, Christina Cheddar, Berk Organizations: Corporation, JPMorgan, Jefferies, UBS, Resorts, Wolfe Research, Accenture —, Accenture, StreetAccount, Micron, LSEG
While there has been a huge gain, it is barely scratching the surface of the potential market. Some potential patients don't have coverage of the pricey medicines through their health insurance plans yet. (For example, those seeking to use GLP-1 drugs for obesity can't receive coverage if they are insured by Medicare as the federal health plan is not allowed to cover weight loss drugs.) Walmart told Bank of America that fiscal second-quarter sales benefited roughly 1% from GLP-1 drug sales volumes. Its stock has fallen 45% year to date on fears that these drugs will shrink the company's market potential.
Persons: John Rainey, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Eli Lilly, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Larry Biegelsen, Biegelsen, Daniel Lyons, Janus Henderson, Lyons, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street, Nordisk's Wegovy, Bank of, Walmart, Health, Novo Nordisk, Medicare, Drug, Bank of America, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, CNBC Locations: U.S, GLP
NNN YTD mountain NNN REIT shares have fallen more than 22%. If that vision comes to pass, it could boost apartment operators such as Equity Residential , Avalonbay Communities and Apartment Income REIT , among others. PEAK YTD mountain Healthpeak shares are down 26% since January and hit a 52-week low Tuesday. Healthpeak shares hit a 52-week low on Tuesday, while Welltower shares shed more than 2%. Healthpeak shares are down more than 26% over the same period.
Persons: Jefferies, Jonathan Petersen, Petersen, Simon, Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Realty Investment Trust, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada
Anticipation should be building as Philip Morris prepares to bring iQOS back to the U.S. market. Philip Morris had partnered with Altria when iQOS was first launched in a handful of U.S. markets in 2019. Eventually, Philip Morris agreed to buy back the commercialization rights from Altria, and that deal is effective April 30, 2024. And this strategy is partly why, Herzog said, Philip Morris is one of Goldman's top picks. Last week, Philip Morris CEO Jacek Olczak spoke on X via ReutersPlus about its harm reduction efforts.
Persons: Philip, Goldman Sachs, Bonnie Herzog, Philip Morris, iQOS, Herzog, mgmt, Gaurav Jain, Jain, FactSet, Jacek Olczak, Jefferies, Owen Bennett, Bennett Organizations: Philip Morris International, Drug Administration, Altria, Barclays, Swedish Match, Bank of America, Rogue, Street Journal, Concordia, United Nations General Assembly Locations: U.S, Altria, New York
Fernandez sees a total addressable market of $140 billion to support patients with obesity. He expects there is a potential for GLP-1 drugs to become as common and widely used, much like statins are used to lower cholesterol. Morgan Stanley's Flynn estimates a 30% share of the diabetes market would generate $109 billion on a worldwide basis for GLP-1 drugs. Layer in a 15% to 30% share of the obesity market and that equates to worldwide sales of $97.4 billion to $194.8 billion. Guggenheim's estimates also assume that oral GLP-1 drugs that are currently in development are able to come to market a few years from now.
Persons: Seamus Fernandez, Fernandez, Lilly, Eli Lilly, Morgan Stanley, Terence Flynn, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Insulet, Canaccord, William Plovanic, Plovanic, It's, Morgan Stanley's Flynn, Flynn, Novo, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Novo, American Heart Association, Food and Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk, Iqvia, Disease Control Locations: GLP
Smucker 's plan to buy Twinkies -maker Hostess Brands is a risky move, if Morgan Stanley's latest research is correct. The firm revisited its August call that a new class of weight loss medications would hamper growth at some food and beverage companies . "Across our coverage, Numerator Insights data highlight that most center-store packaged food companies slightly over-index to consumers with obesity," Kaufman said. Hostess stock soared 19% on the news. Other food stocks with higher exposure to customers with obesity include Conagra , Kraft Heinz and Smucker, the report said, citing the Numerator data.
Persons: Smucker, Morgan Stanley's, Ding Dongs, Morgan Stanley, Pamela Kaufman, Atkins, Nordisk's Wegovy, Kaufman, Kraft Heinz, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Hostess Brands, Centers for Disease Control, Nordisk's Locations: U.S, GLP
Industry analysts are insisting that new weight loss and diabetes drugs like Ozempic won't hurt the demand for insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitors, but most investors aren't buying it. The answer may depend on who you listen to and whether you see GLP-1 drugs as a help or a hinderance to the category. DXCM 3M mountain In the quarter to date, Dexcom shares are down nearly 19%. Dexcom shares are down more than 7% year to date. TNDM 3M mountain Tandem Diabetes shares have fallen significantly this year.
Persons: Ozempic, Danielle Antalffy, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, hasn't, Dexcom, Piper Sandler, Matt O'Brien, O'Brien, Paresh Dandona, semaglutide, Travis Steed, Steed, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Nordisk's, Novo, New, of Medicine, Tandem Diabetes, Tandem Diabetes Care, Diabetes, Jacobs School of Medicine, Biomedical Sciences, University of Buffalo, Novo Nordisk's, Bank of America Locations: CGMs
That's where a number of early-stage drug delivery companies come in — and most are flying under investors' radar. Drug delivery tends to be a "roll-up sector," explained Edward Nash, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. Nash recently looked at four companies operating in drug delivery: Rani Therapeutics , Biora Therapeutics , Avalyn Pharma and Elektrofi. At the moment, the most effective GLP-1 medications for weight loss are delivered via a subcutaneous injection. The verstility of the Rani pill also is encouraging, according to Harrison, since it could be used with a wide range of drugs.
Persons: that's, Edward Nash, Nash, Rani, FactSet, Talat Imran, Eli Lilly, Evercore, Lilly, Genuity's Nash, Julian Harrison, Rani's, Harrison, Cantor Fitzgerald, Olivia Brayer, Imran, We're Organizations: Big Pharma, Therapeutics, Biora Therapeutics, Avalyn Pharma, CNBC, Novo Nordisk, Novo, European Union, Food and Drug Administration, Celltrion Locations:
Calling it the "best fundamental story" among U.S. large caps, UBS analyst Colin Bristow on Friday lifted his price target to $612 from $526. The stock has already gained 47% year to date, mostly on the back of lofty expectations for weight loss drug sales. Bristow also expects data for its Crohn's disease treatment by year-end, as well as readouts on Verzenio for prostate cancer. Then by 2024, Lilly is expected to submit data for a cell therapy for type 1 diabetes. And there's potential for even more upside if the drug adds other indications such as renal treatment, he said.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Colin Bristow, Bristow, Lilly, Jaypirca, Novo's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Food, Drug, European Union, Novo Locations: U.S
One such prediction came Monday from Morgan Stanley analysts who forecasted a 1.3% drop in calorie consumption in the U.S. by 2035. The shift in behavior is notable because it will affect a sizeable demographic group that represents a disproportionate share of food consumption, the analysts said. In fact, some patients taking these medicines say they have to sometimes force themselves to eat due to a lack of appetite. These types of patterns were seen in consumer research Morgan Stanley conducted in June and July among 300 patients taking these medicines. Keurig Dr Pepper, with its coffee business accounting for about 30% of corporate sales, offers some diversification from at-risk beverage categories, Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: you've, Morgan Stanley, Pamela Kaufman, Read, Campbell, Mondelez, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, John David Rainey, We've, we're, Rainey, Dara Mohsenian, Eric Serotta, Dr Pepper Organizations: Hostess Brands, Hershey, Nordisk's Ozempic, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk, Industry, Lawmakers, Walmart Locations: U.S, Cava
However, the pharmaceutical companies are making the case that weight loss can improve health, and possibly lower health-care costs over time. But analysts have said the news isn't all bad for such stocks, and many were fell too low on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank analyst Imron Zafar estimated Thursday that bariatric surgery accounts for about 5% of Intuitive Surgical's U.S. robotic surgery business, but has been driving much of the company's growth. Some of the surgeons Zafar spoke with said any drop off in bariatric surgery was likely to be offset by increased use of the robot for other procedures. But they expect the drugs will remain necessary because GLP-1 drugs have yet to show they improve fibrosis, which is associated with NASH.
Persons: nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH, Abbott, Robbie Marcus, Marcus, Marcus doesn't, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Stryker, Smith, Zimmer Biomet, Bariatric, Imron Zafar, Zafar Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Abbott Laboratories, CNBC, JPMorgan, Companies, Inspire Medical Systems, Resmed, Philips, Nephew, Deutsche Bank, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Sagimet Biosciences, Akero Therapeutics, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Viking Therapeutics, Madrigal Locations: U.S
A landmark study of the cardiovascular benefits of weight loss drug Wegovy is being seen as a pivotal step toward broadening access to these drugs. The drug, also known as tirzepatide, is expected to be approved for weight loss by the Food and Drug Administration by year-end. Notably, Medicare does reimburse obese patients for weight loss surgery, but Mounjaro has been able to help patients realize an average weight loss that approaches the typical success of bariatric procedures. If CMS is able to reimburse patients for weight loss treatment that would significantly increase access, boosting sales. "This is the first time a weight [loss] medicinal intervention has shown to have cardiovascular risk reduction.
Persons: enrollees, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Akash Tewari, NVO, Tewari, Wells, Mounjaro, Mohit Bansal, Robert Califf, Goldman Sachs, Chris Shibutani, Shibutani, Goldman, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley, comorbidities, Bansal Organizations: Nordisk's Ozempic, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, Jefferies, Medicare, Services, GLP, STAT, Goldman, Lilly, Novo Nordisk, BMI, Novo Locations: U.S, GLP, Tuesday's
"On the size of the opportunity, I think, it's a little too early to say," said GE Healthcare CEO Peter Arduini. GEHC YTD mountain GE Healthcare shares are up 31% year to date. So what's the takeaway for GE Healthcare, Quest and others in the diagnostics space? Zimmerman reiterated a neutral rating on GE Healthcare on Wednesday, saying it was fairly valued relative to its peers. Both stocks have had a down week, but GE Healthcare shares are up 31% in 2023.
Persons: Peter Arduini, it's, Gordon Haskett, Don Bilson, Bilson, Eli Lilly, Ryan Zimmerman, Zimmerman, FactSet Organizations: GE Healthcare, Quest Diagnostics, Drug Administration, Biogen, FDA, ARIA, Quest Locations: U.S
"With 8 direct and 15 indirect catalysts in the next ~12-18 months, we see several near-term opportunities to further drive GPCR shares," Rahimi wrote in a research note. Structure's ticker symbol is a nod to the company's research, which focuses on G protein-coupled receptors, or GPCRs, a growing area of drug development. GSBR-1290 is Structure's GLP-1R agonist that is being studied as treatment for type 2 diabetes and obesity. If successful, the drug could one day compete against Novo Nordisk's blockbusters Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro. Separately, the analyst said Structure's other early stage drug candidate, LTSE-2578, provides further upside as investors have largely overlooked the opportunity it provides.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Yasmeen, Rahimi, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Wegovy Organizations: Therapeutics, Novo, ShouTi Inc, Nasdaq Locations: San Francisco, Shanghai
Morgan Stanley analysts said they are seeing a profound shift in the way diabetes is being treated, with doctors intensifying the focus on weight management, which is accelerating the uptake of GLP-1 medications. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has been approved to sell Mounjaro, or tirzepatide, as a Type 2 diabetes treatment. Both GLP-1 medications have attracted a lot of attention for their ability to lower blood sugar, curb food cravings and help patients with weight loss. Morgan Stanley said GLP-1 medicines now make up nearly 30% of all new diabetes prescriptions in the U.S. About 22% of all diabetes prescriptions are for this class of drug. The analysts now anticipate the market for GLP-1 medications will reach $77 billion in 2030, up from a prior forecast of $54 billion.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Lilly GLP, Eli Lilly, Lilly, GLP, Morgan, Wells, Mohit Bansal, Bansal, he's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Food and Drug Administration, U.S, GLP Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
The National Retail Federation is predicting record spending , whether students are heading back to elementary school, high school or college. Bracing for higher prices as wages fall Baked into that outlook was an expectation held by the vast majority of respondents, 82%, that prices will be higher this year than in 2022. As in the KPMG survey, the gain largely reflected the perception that prices will be higher this year. In the JLL poll, Walmart , Target and Amazon were among the top three retailers parents planned to shop, by a wide margin. Stifel reiterated its price target of $163 for Walmart, saying, "We continue to see more upside than downside from current levels."
Persons: Paul Ashworth, Staples, Mark Astrachan, Astrachan, Stifel, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe Organizations: Prime, National Retail Federation, KPMG, Big, Capital Economics, Consumers, Walmart, Target, Old Navy, Kohl's, Macy's, Costco, Adobe Analytics, Jefferies, Amazon, Walmart U.S, Bed Locations: American
Investors would be forgiven if talk of a potential suicide risk associated with a new class of diabetes and weight loss drugs led to skittishness last week. Prior attempts to treat overweight or obese patients with medications were often plagued with side effects and drug recalls. The first is that most obesity drugs, including GLP-1s, are "centrally acting," which means they work on a patient's brain. The second is that prior obesity drugs have been withdrawn because of high rates of psychiatric disorders, he said, citing Sanofi's Acomplia as one of the more recent examples. This was not the case for the GLP-1 medications.
Persons: skittishness, Eli Lilly's Trulicity, Lilly's, Wolfe, Tim Anderson, Anderson, Sanofi's Acomplia, Eli Lilly, Wolfe's Anderson, Colin Bristow, Lilly, LLY's, Peter Verdult, Wegovy, Verdult, Bristow, Emmanuel Papadakis, Papadakis, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nordisk's Ozempic, Wall Street, European Medicines Agency, EMA, Wolfe Research, FDA, UBS, Citi, Novo Nordisk, Deutsche Bank, Prevention Locations: United States, U.S
Wegovy was approved as an obesity treatment in June 2021 , but Ozempic, a Type 2 diabetes treatment, has been used off-label for weight loss. Mounjaro uses GLP-1 and gastric inhibitory polypeptide, or GIP, to help patients lose weight. Eli Lilly's oral drug, orforglipron, has an even better profile . They also could be helpful in assisting patients in maintaining weight loss after they've used the injectable versions, he said. Some have highlighted that oral drugs also may be more manageable for patients who can't handle the idea of giving themselves a once-a-week injection.
Persons: Eli Lilly, we're, Jonathan Wolleben, Wegovy, Lilly's tirzepatide, It's, Mounjaro, Wolleben, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, Lilly, , Novo, Eli, it's, they've, FactSet, Altimmune's pemvidutide, Morgan Stanley, Mark Purcell, Purcell, Graig Suvannavejh, Suvannavejh, Roth, Dylan Dupuis, Dupuis, Trung Huynh, Goldman Sachs, Chris Shibutani, Shibutani Organizations: Novo Nordisk, JMP Securities, Citizens Company, Nordisk's Ozempic, Food and Drug Administration, Nordisk, Novo, Zealand Pharma, Shandong Suncadia, GSBR, Biosciences, Fujian Shengdi Pharmaceutical, Mizuho Securities, Terns Pharmaceuticals, American Diabetes Association, Viking Therapeutics, Pfizer, Credit Suisse, AstraZeneca, Therapeutics, Medicare, Medicaid, CNBC Pro's Locations: Danish, Shandong, Fujian, Viking
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